In recent years, the once-cordial relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia has taken a sharp turn for the worse, plunging into a quagmire of distrust, accusations, and diplomatic standoffs. What was once considered a strategic partnership in the volatile Horn of Africa region has now become a source of concern for regional stability. The roots of this deterioration run deep, with historical, political, and economic factors exacerbating the rift between the two nations.
Historically, Somalia and Ethiopia have shared a complex relationship, marked by periods of cooperation and conflict. Border disputes, ethnic tensions, and proxy wars have marred their interactions for decades. However, in the early 2000s, there was a glimmer of hope as the two countries sought to mend ties and foster regional cooperation. Ethiopia played a crucial role in stabilizing Somalia by supporting the Transitional Federal Government and later the Federal Government of Somalia in its fight against al-Shabaab militants.
Despite these efforts, underlying tensions persisted, fueled by competing interests and historical grievances. One such contentious issue is the status of the Somali-inhabited region of Ogaden, which Ethiopia considers an integral part of its territory but is viewed by many Somalis as occupied land. The presence of Ethiopian troops in Somalia, ostensibly to combat terrorism, has also raised suspicions and fueled resentment among segments of the Somali population.
In recent years, the relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia has deteriorated significantly, with a series of incidents exacerbating existing tensions. One flashpoint was the dispute over the Somali region of Gedo, which lies along the border between the two countries. In 2022, Somalia accused Ethiopia of meddling in its internal affairs by supporting local militias opposed to the government in Mogadishu. This led to a breakdown in communication and escalated military tensions along the border.
Furthermore, Ethiopia’s domestic turmoil, including the conflict in the Tigray region and the political transition following the resignation of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has added another layer of complexity to the relationship. Somalia’s support for Ethiopia’s dissident groups, including the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), has strained ties further, with Ethiopia accusing Somalia of harboring insurgents and fomenting instability within its borders.
Economic competition has also played a role in driving a wedge between the two nations. The strategic port of Berbera in Somaliland, which has received investment from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Ethiopia, has become a point of contention. Somalia’s reluctance to recognize the port deal and its pursuit of economic partnerships with other countries, including Turkey and Qatar, has irked Ethiopia and its allies.
A deal between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland involving the lease of coastline and establishment of a naval base has further worsened diplomatic relations with Somalia. Somalia’s government is furious at the agreement, which would give landlocked Ethiopia access to the Red Sea. – James Bays, Aljazeera
The deteriorating diplomatic relations between Somalia and Ethiopia have significant implications for regional stability and security. The Horn of Africa is already grappling with numerous challenges, including terrorism, piracy, and political instability. A further escalation of tensions between two of the region’s key players could exacerbate these issues and undermine efforts to promote peace and development.
Efforts to de-escalate tensions and rebuild trust between Somalia and Ethiopia are imperative. Dialogue, diplomacy, and a commitment to addressing underlying grievances are essential to finding sustainable solutions to the challenges facing the two nations. Regional and international actors, including the African Union and the United Nations, have a crucial role to play in facilitating constructive engagement and promoting peace in the Horn of Africa.
In conclusion, the deteriorating diplomatic relations between Somalia and Ethiopia underscore the fragility of stability in the Horn of Africa. Addressing the root causes of tension and finding common ground are essential steps towards building a more peaceful and prosperous future for both nations and the wider region. Failure to do so risks further instability and conflict with far-reaching consequences.
The American Centrist 
